Citi Predicts Brent Crude Price Drop to $60 by Year-End as Supply Concerns Ease

In recent market analysis, Citibank has forecasted that Brent crude oil prices are likely to decline to around $60 per barrel by the end of this year. This projection reflects easing concerns about global oil supply, even as geopolitical tensions continue to play a role in market dynamics.

Citi’s outlook comes amid a backdrop of shifting supply-side factors. OPEC+ countries have been ramping up their oil production, injecting more barrels into the market. This increase in supply is a key reason why Citi expects the oil market to become more comfortable with available volumes, driving prices down from recent highs.

Another factor influencing the price drop forecast is China’s strategic purchasing behavior. Although China has been actively stockpiling discounted Russian crude, a move that has helped balance supply in the market, Citi analysts point out that this will likely not be enough to sustain higher price levels. Instead, these purchases contribute to an overall scenario of increased stock builds expected through 2025 and 2026.

Citi’s base case scenario suggests Brent crude prices averaging around $62 per barrel during the second half of 2026, signaling a period of relative price stability but at lower levels compared to recent peaks. The bank also notes that despite ongoing geopolitical risks—such as tensions linked to the Middle East and uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict—the market is showing signs of loosening, which could further weigh on prices.

In the nearer term, Citi has even revised its short-term price forecast for Brent crude down to $60 per barrel within the next three months. This adjustment reflects a tariff shock and the gradual easing of supply fears, which together are shaping a bearish sentiment among market watchers.

For investors and market participants, these developments suggest a need for cautious optimism. While geopolitical risks can cause sudden price volatility, the underlying supply dynamics currently indicate a trend toward more balanced markets and potentially lower oil prices.

In summary, Citi’s analysis provides a compelling perspective on what lies ahead for Brent crude prices. As OPEC+ continues to boost production and major consumers like China manage their crude purchases smartly, the fears of supply shortages appear to be waning. This shift is expected to pull Brent prices down to the $60 mark by the end of the year, signaling a significant recalibration for the global oil market going into 2026.

As always, investors should keep a close watch on ongoing geopolitical developments and sector-specific shifts, which can still influence market direction amid these broader trends.